Training camp hasn’t even started and we already have some juicy Kirill Kaprizov trade rumors. Kaprizov reportedly rejected a massive eight year, $16 million AAV contract, which fueled most of this discussion. While the validity of the rumor was initially up in the air, it came from a reputable source and the conversation has since shifted from validity to wondering how the information went public. Given that shift, it seems the rejected contract is indeed fact, thus fueling more Kirill Kaprizov trade rumors. As per usual, I have thoughts.
1. For starters, Kaprizov is someone you back up a dump truck of money for. The 28 year old winger has never been under a point per game. Last season he put up 25-31-56 in 41 games, which is a 50-62-112 pace. In his last four seasons, his 82-game point pace was 108, 92, 105, and 112. That’s in line with Artemi Panarin‘s production, but at six years younger.
With a rising cap and uncertainty with Panarin’s future and the availability of Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, Kaprizov would be the next best option as an elite producer that can carry a line.
Generally speaking, a team is best built with centers carrying wingers, but there are a few wingers that can carry lines and Kaprizov is one of them.
2. It’s unknown if the Kirill Kaprizov trade rumors are legitimate, or if it’s just fueled by the contract rejection. But let’s run with the trade rumors being true, and if the Rangers can actually make something work. Kaprizov is carrying a $9 million cap hit and the Rangers have just $1.5 million in cap space this season. It’s not impossible to make something work, but it would come later in the season as the Rangers bank more cap space.
Given Kaprizov’s apparent ask of more than $16 million a season, the Rangers would certainly need to include another player with salary in the deal. The salary and new contract make this a very difficult situation for both teams to navigate if we are taking the Kirill Kaprizov trade rumors at face value.
3. The only thing we know for certain is Minnesota wanted a top-six center in the offseason. Mika Zibanejad is the obvious candidate here as his contract carries enough of a cap hit to free up space for Kaprizov, but his full no-move clause makes things very difficult. No matter which way you slice it, the Rangers will need to part with a big contract in a trade, plus trade Artemi Panarin and/or let him walk to free up the additional space.
I think it’s safe to assume that if the Rangers make a run at Kaprizov in the season, Panarin is getting traded to recoup assets moved to acquire Kaprizov.
4. Trade value is very difficult to figure out as well. There aren’t many teams willing to take on Kaprizov at $16 million, and even fewer have assets to make it work. He’s also a pending UFA, which lowers his value significantly. For now, we need to treat him as a trade deadline rental.
For the Rangers, if we assume Zibanejad is included to offset salary, I think it’s safe to also assume one of Brennan Othmann or Brett Berard are included as a young, cost controlled forward. Given Othmann has the higher pedigree and trade value, let’s stick with Othmann here.
That’s Zibanejad, Othmann, and the obvious 2026 1st round pick. Under this scenario, Zibanejad rebounds as a center and has some solid trade value. There are a bunch of teams that would take him at $8.5 million, given the rising cap ceiling. This seems in line with the first Mikko Rantanen trade to Carolina last season.
Waiving his NMC is the wild card, and I can’t imagine a situation where this happens without Zibanejad waiving his NMC.
5. If the Rangers go out and trade for Kaprizov this season, then Artemi Panarin is almost for sure on the move in a separate trade. Panarin’s trade value will be similar to Kaprizov’s as a rental, but it’s a bit tougher to spitball specific returns without naming a team.
6. There’s also a scenario where Panarin is included in a Kaprizov trade, though this is much tougher to figure out because in theory it’s a 1:1 trade as equally producing wingers that are pending UFAs. But I wonder if age might play a factor, even if all else is equal. Maybe the Rangers add a sweetener like Matthew Robertson?
7. Despite all the Kirill Kaprizov trade rumors, I don’t think the Rangers will be in on this unless he’s the only option left. That means Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel have re-signed and Artemi Panarin isn’t going to be part of their future. Chris Drury will certainly kick tires, as he should with any trade rumor, but I just don’t see this happening unless multiple other things also happen.
I also don’t think Kaprizov gets traded, but that’s a whole other discussion for another day.
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