Draft week is finally upon us! As we begin the countdown to Friday night and the Rangers’ first lottery pick since 2020, there is no doubt that a majority of mock drafts this week will have the Rangers taking one of the many defense draft options. While I am extremely bullish on Viggo Bjorck at 5 and believe he will be strongly considered, it is hard to argue with the logic of taking a defenseman, as the defense draft options are pretty solid. They are riskier than forwards in the top ten though, so buyer beware.
For far too long, Adam Fox has been asked to carry water for a group that struggles to move the puck with any consistency. Last season, the portion of the fanbase intent on running Fox – a Hall of Famer who will be the last player to wear number 23 for the Rangers – out of town got a glimpse of what our blue line looks like without Fox, and it wasn’t pretty.
For over a year now, I have maintained that this is a weak draft. But if it has any strength, it’s the defensive group at the top, and the players could be ranked in any order. No consensus exists among the five players I will touch on in the next two pieces, and I cannot claim to be an expert on each, but this is what I have been able to glean from my viewings and following the trends around this group.
Chase Reid – RHD – Soo Greyhounds (OHL)
Below is how Chase Reid ranks in a few of the most respected draft rankings. You can find each ranking linked, although you may need a subscription to access the full ranking:
As you can probably discern from his draft rankings, Reid as the top-ranked defenseman is the closest thing there is to a consensus among the defense draft options. While center Caleb Malhotra is probably the draft’s biggest riser this year, Reid’s journey to the top of the rankings is not far off.
Reid started off the 24/25 season in the NAHL after being cut from USHL camp. He made the midseason jump to the Greyhounds, where he announced himself as a legitimate prospect, scoring at almost a point per game pace. His play this season in the OHL and at the World Juniors has elevated his status as a premier defensive prospect in this class.
The appeal with Reid is very clear. Among the top defense draft options, he is the only one widely regarded as having the skill and vision to run a first-unit power play at the NHL level. He is fairly big, standing at about 6’2″, and is viewed as the strongest skater among the defense draft options at the top of the class (although I think Alberts Smits has a case from what I’ve seen). While I do think the positive outcomes in his projection hinge on strong offensive production, he is not a pure offensive-defenseman. His defensive play has improved to the point that some consider it a strength.
The final appeal with Reid is that he is viewed as a prospect with some untapped upside due to his rapid progression. From the minute the draft order was set, I have been pretty firm that I believe San Jose will take Reid at 2. Not only does he fit exactly what they need, but I genuinely believe he will be ranked number 1 or 2 on many boards.
That makes it unlikely he is available at pick 5, but if the Sharks go with Ivar Stenberg, I think it does open up the possibility of Reid making it to 5th overall. I have some hesitation, as I see some redundancy with Fox, but there is no question that Reid would bring a package that the Rangers don’t have in their current defensive group.
I can imagine some hesitation from those focused on production, as his point totals were not jaw-dropping compared to someone like Carels, but the data actually really likes Reid. It is worth noting that the OHL was a much lower-scoring league this year compared to previous seasons. He has the third-highest chance of becoming a star in this class, so there would be plenty of statistical upside with this pick. His microstat tracking data (see below) is simply outstanding. His transition data matches the eye test; this is a player who would help the Rangers get out of their own end.
Carson Carels – LHD – Prince George Cougars (WHL)
Below is how Carson Carels ranks in a few of the most respected draft rankings. You can find each ranking linked, although you may need a subscription to access the full ranking:
If there were an award for the most mock-drafted player to the Rangers in the draft cycle, it would go to Carels. It’s for good reason, as it’s not often that an underage defenseman makes Team Canada. While Vlad Gavrikov has brought a steadiness to the left side of the defense, his status as Fox’s partner means there is still really only one pairing that can be relied upon to produce strong defensive play.
Despite his gaudy point totals in the high-scoring WHL, Carels does not bring the same tantalizing offensive upside as Reid. He is, however, thought of as the best two-way defenseman and shutdown defenseman in this class, earning constant comparisons to defenseman like Charlie McAvoy, Ryan McDonagh, and Jake Sanderson.
When he moves his feet, Carels is a flowing skater with excellent mobility. How effectively he leverages his skating is a bit of a point of contention, as he can be caught flat-footed from time to time when defending in transition. He also has a dangerous shot from the point, and while he won’t run PP1 for the Rangers, he would offer a threat on the second unit and projects as a player who can chip in with 45-50 points each season.
One point of concern is that while he is seen as an incredibly physical and competitive player, scouts have concerns surrounding inconsistency from game to game. That is fairly common among young defenders, though, and my main takeaway is that any suggestion he should push for a camp spot right after being drafted would be premature. A year in college hockey will only help him, especially given how weak the WHL was this past season.
The data also likes Carels, which is predictable given the huge production jump he made this season. I do think it is worth noting that the WHL was a pretty weak league this year, but you cannot ignore the second half of the season that Carels had. His underlying numbers also look very strong, particularly in terms of preventing and gaining zone entries, which is a perennial struggle for the Rangers. Carels likely comes with the highest floor of the defense draft options, and I definitely see the fit for the Rangers, even if I don’t think the offensive production this season is a true reflection of his upside.
Check back in tomorrow for part 2 of the best defense draft options. I plan to wrap up my pre-draft coverage with a couple of pieces touching on my pick 26 targets, as well as some players I would like the Rangers to take a swing at with their run of picks in the third round.
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