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In a previous article, I made the case for why North Carolina might be the next boom state. In an accompanying video, I also pointed out that Utah had the highest population growth from new births. Its natural population growth, strong economy, and geographical constraints among its key cities are the main reasons I’m just as bullish on Utah (specifically, the string of cities along what’s called the Wasatch Front).
Utah’s Population Growth
Utah had the highest overall growth of any state from 2008-2023 (approximately 1.68% growth per year, on average).
This is due to some healthy inward migration but mostly because of the large positive amount of “natural change” (more people are simply being born in Utah).
Why is this the case? A relatively large portion of the population (42%) identifies as members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (although this number has been steadily declining). And historically, Mormons have larger families than the average United States household.
While it’s OK to talk about Utah as a whole, the majority of the population lives along the Wasatch Front, a string of cities between the lakes and the Wasatch Mountains, such as Salt Lake City, Provo, and Ogden. So, let’s dive deeper.
The Wasatch Front Economy
Jobs continue to be added in the Provo and Ogden MSAs, but Salt Lake City is the primary economic center of the region.
While logistics and utilities make up the largest number of jobs, I like the growth in the “Professional and Business Services” and “Education and Health Services” sectors (white-collar jobs).
Let’s look at the median income for each region.
People are generally paid more in Salt Lake City than in the other two MSAs. However, both Provo and Ogden saw healthy income growth in 2024. Hopefully, this trend continues because many properties have become out of reach for first-time homebuyers:
Geographical Constraints
Here’s a quick, crude drawing of the buildable area between the lakes and the mountains in the region (excuse the messiness):
Courtesy of Google Earth
As you can see from the geography, if the region keeps growing in population, it will eventually run out of buildable land and will have to rely on infill development. It doesn’t take much to imagine how that might affect real estate prices over time. Just look at any coastal California city as an example.
Final Thoughts
While I don’t think Utah will boom the same way North Carolina will, I think the relatively high birth rate and strong economy, combined with the geographical constraints of the region, will push property values up faster than its other pandemic boom-town counterparts like Austin, Texas, or Raleigh, North Carolina.
(I could also make a similar argument for Boise, Idaho. In fact, Boise, Salt Lake City, and Raleigh are my top three metros, and I predict they will see the highest appreciation in the next 10 years.)
Do you live in the region? Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments. I haven’t spent too much time in the region, and I’d love anyone with boots-on-the-ground experience to add their thoughts.
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