Despite a strong offseason that has left the Rangers far better off this coming season, there’s still a doom and gloom feel surrounding this club. It seems many feel the changes made weren’t enough and the Rangers should have done more, which is fair since many core pieces still remain. While a lot certainly needs to go right for the Rangers to be in a Stanley Cup conversation, more needs to go wrong if the worst case scenario for the Rangers decides to rear its ugly head.
The worst case scenario for the Rangers this coming season only occurs if, like competing for a Stanley Cup, many factors converge simultaneously. The likelihood of this occurring are astronomically low, especially considering these massive changes for the Rangers have already taken place. The NHL isn’t a video game, and teams can’t overhaul entire rosters in one trade deadline or one offseason.
In fact, you can argue that Chris Drury has done a halfway decent job of overhauling the roster, though his methods left a lot to be desired. Gone are Barclay Goodrow, Jacob Trouba, Kaapo Kakko, Filip Chytil, Jimmy Vesey, Ryan Lindgren, Chris Kreider, K’Andre Miller, Zac Jones, and Peter Laviolette. In are Urho Vaakanainen, Will Borgen, JT Miller, Carson Soucy, and Scott Morrow.
The entire blue line has been changed, save for Adam Fox and Braden Schneider. The Rangers have a solid top-three down the middle in Miller, Vincent Trocheck, and Mika Zibanejad. They’ve also created room for the kids and youth to grow into roles. Though the roster doesn’t appear to be a Cup winner, many are overlooking the amount of changes–for better or for worse–on the roster. The taste of last season lingers.
The worst case scenario for the Rangers starts at center
The biggest concern for the Rangers is their aging top-six. Alexis Lafreniere and Will Cuylle are the young guns at 23 years old, both turning 24 this season. After that, it’s a pair of 32 year olds (Miller, Zibanejad) and a 33 year old (Artemi Panarin). Lafreniere, Cuylle, and whichever kid fills in the 2RW spot are not going to flourish if the veterans simply can’t get it done anymore.
The concern up front is mostly on Zibanejad though, as again the taste of last season is still fresh in everyone’s mind. The worst case scenario for the Rangers focuses less on Zibanejad, who appears to destined for a more sheltered role at center this season, and more on whether JT Miller can kick the proverbial can down the road on his aging curve. If Miller is fine, which shifts both Zibanejad and Trocheck down the lineup for easier matchups and deployment, then the risk at center seems to be mitigated.
The kids need to step up
Another big input into the worst case scenario for the Rangers is the kids. Lafreniere and Cuylle need to step up and be significant contributors at both 5v5 and on the powerplay. Someone needs to grab the 2RW spot to start the season and also contribute, at least at 5v5. The 3LW spot needs to be filled by someone who can hold his own as well, preferably by Brett Berard.
If the centers staying productive is a safe bet, then the kids stepping up is on the other side of the spectrum. If Conor Sheary is in the lineup on Day 1, then some of the kids either weren’t ready or never will be.
The defense is an unknown
Mike Sullivan’s impact on the defense is expected to be significant, but it’s difficult to quantify until we see the product on the ice. That said, the left side of the defense is such a mess that we are tentatively putting Braden Schneider in the 2LD spot right now. Vlad Gavrikov and Adam Fox are the only known entities on the blue line. Everyone else is a giant question mark.
From Braden Schneider’s shoulder to Scott Morrow’s NHL readiness to whether Carson Soucy can fake it for a season, the Rangers blue line is a big bag of unknown. If the worst case for the Rangers is to have a defense as porous as last season, then it will be due to the bottom four simply not living up to expectations. The defense can singlehandedly bring the Rangers down, even if Sully brings in a simpler system.
So what is the worst case scenario for the Rangers?
If we assume JT Miller starts to slow down, Mika Zibanejad is no longer a center, and Vincent Trocheck can’t keep up as a 2C anymore, then the Rangers are already off to a bad start. Even if the issue is “just” at center and the kids are able to step up, Sully relies heavily on his centers in defensive zone coverage. It won’t matter how good the blue line can be if the centers simply can’t keep up anymore.
The whole team will go as the centers go. Suffice it to say, the worst case scenario for the Rangers is their defense looking exactly like it did last year, only this time without any offense to cover up mistakes.
The kids being unable to step up would only compound things further. The Rangers can survive if Lafreniere and Cuylle top out as middle six wingers. They can’t survive if the team defense–and thereby the centers–simply aren’t good enough.
Unfortunately the worst case scenario for the Rangers is extremely realistic. The stars are aging and only two of six defensemen are known entities. In fact, it wouldn’t be hyperbole to state the worst case scenario for the Rangers is more likely to occur than the best case scenario.
The reality is the Rangers will likely fall somewhere between their best and worst case scenarios. How far in each direction has yet to be seen.
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