Early in the summer, after the huge wave of initial free agents had signed and the major moves had most been made, I sent out a tweet that many people agreed with and many people didn’t. To put it simply, why should I be excited for this upcoming Rangers season if the roster is basically the same as last year? This year feels different for me, and unlike others here, the minor Rangers roster moves made this offseason weren’t enough to give me optimism for this season.
The loss to the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Final last year was one of the biggest gut punches I’ve ever experienced as a fan. It’s right up there with the 2012 Conference Final loss to the New Jersey Devils, the 2014 Stanley Cup Final loss to the Los Angeles Kings and the 2015 Eastern Conference Final against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
After the Chris Kreider hat trick against the Carolina Hurricanes, this team truly felt like it was going to be a team of destiny. After the first three games of the series against Florida it felt even more that way. Then… the Panthers decided to remind the hockey world who they were and picked the Rangers apart with surgical precision.
When a team hits you like that you’d expect management to understand that maybe things need to be looked at differently. The 2023 playoffs hit in a similar way. Yet here we are, with minor Rangers roster moves and almost the exact same team that couldn’t get the job done the last two seasons.
The Rangers are still a good team
On the positive side, this is a Rangers team who won the President’s Trophy and was the best overall team in the regular season. They still have one of the best defenseman in the world in Adam Fox, the best goalie in Igor Shesterkin, a star winger in Artemi Panarin, and a budding young offensive dynamo in Alexis Lafreniere. This is a very good team that will make the playoffs. Chris Drury will address roster holes at the trade deadline. They will have a shot.
But none of the Rangers roster moves addressed a real problem
The problem is…will all these minor Rangers roster moves be enough to get over that Eastern Conference FInal hump that has plagued them recently? That’s where the problem lies for me. This is a team that needs to win. Another top-four consolation prize isn’t enough. This is why all these smaller Rangers roster moves irk me so.
The right wing situation next to Mika Zibanjead and Chris Kreider still isn’t great. Reilly Smith is a fine player, but is he a second line right wing on a Stanley Cup contending team? I’m not too sure about that.
There were some wild free agent deals signed this summer and many will age poorly. But there were better options out there, at least in my opinion. Why not attempt to grab Jonathan Marchessault away from the Golden Knights? Marchessault, while yes a little older, fits this teams current contention window. He also would have been a great piece next to Zibanejad and Kreider, and there’s a strong argument he was a better option than Smith.
It’s all about Mika Zibanejad
To me, the issue starts with Zibanejad and getting him going. Is Smith enough to get him going after a rough year? Is Smith enough to make the second line a true scoring threat in the playoffs? One that doesn’t get overwhelmed by other team’s shutdown centers (Aleksander Barkov, Anthony Cirelli). He had some moments, but once he was put up against Barkov, he did nothing. Granted, most star players did nothing against Barkov last postseason, but this was on top of a subpar offensive regular season and continued declining 5v5 production.
Zibanejad’s contract is unmoveable as it gets. Even without the no-move clause, few teams can afford $8.5 million over 6 years on a buyout proof contract. The focus should have been on a winger that can truly get him going. The Rangers have tried a dozen options since the Pavel Buchnevich trade and still found nothing. Others like Dave may be optimistic, but I need to see it before I can believe it.
Rob mentioned this on Live From the Blue Seats, and it’s something that should be discussed more: Can Zibanejad’s role on the team be altered to make him more effective? Maybe let him be more of a shutdown center since he isn’t that great of a play driver? Zibanejad really has me worried.
Maybe Filip Chytil needs to be given more a look higher in the lineup? If Zibanejad can’t score more at 5v5 this year and gets dummied again in the biggest playoff games, we’re going to be sitting in the same position we were in last year. We will all again be disappointed at another too-early playoff loss.
Botching the Trouba move was bad
The thing is, the Rangers roster moves this offseason could have looked had the Jacob Trouba situation was managed properly. Rumors are mixed, between the Red Wings drama and the non-reporting drama, and while we don’t know how much of that is true, Trouba is still with the Rangers.
When he’s on the ice, Trouba is a net negative. There were several instances during the playoffs where his undisciplined play cost this team potential playoff victories. He gets caught flat footed, his positioning isn’t the greatest and ultimately he needs to be kept in a third pair role this year to be used as effectively as possible. The hope is he rebounds and is fully healthy this season. A lesser role will certainly help, assuming he is moved down in the lineup.
Kids are still an uncertainty
Will Brennen Othmann, Brett Berard, Zac Jones, and maybe even Victor Mancini make a big impact? Given the money the Rangers have spent elsewhere, they need someone on a cheap contract to produce, and only Jones is a given to play more than 30 games this season. Berard is likely to get cut in camp. Mancini will be returned to Hartford once Ryan Lindgren is healthy (though he’s been excellent this preseason). And Brennan Othmann has been inconsistent this preseason.
Once the Trouba deal fell through, limiting other Rangers roster moves, it became clear at least two kids would need to step up. Jones has looked good, but no one else appears to be grabbing the bull by the horns. Maybe Mancini sticks though, especially if Lindgren is out much longer than anticipated.
5v5 play is the biggest issue
All of this ties into the major question: How will this team perform at 5v5? Were the minor Rangers roster moves–plus a kid of two–be enough to get them over a 50% xG share? Will they score more goals at even strength? Will they be able to control play at 5v5? The strongest teams in the NHL are able to control play and out chance their opponents at 5v5. I’m not sure this team did enough this summer to alleviate those fears. Peter Laviolette has a lot of the same pieces and he may need to make difficult lineup decisions to get the most out of what is essentially the same lineup as last year.
Inspired by Rob’s comments on this week’s Live From the Blue Seats: Was this current iteration of the core’s best shot actually last season? Should they have gone all in for Jake Guentzel at the deadline? Hindsight is 20/20, but the rumored price of Othmann and 2 first round picks doesn’t seem so bad right now. If this year ends in failure just as last did season, the Guentzel miss might become an even bigger talking point.
A bigger summer was needed
What this boils down to is the Rangers truly needed a bigger summer, and they didn’t get it. Instead, we got minor Rangers roster moves and a team that looks just about the same as it did last year. The ceiling for this core is the Conference Final. Management has not done enough to improve the overall makeup and ceiling of the team.
Teams that win the Stanley Cup are dominant at 5v5 and can push teams around when they need to. They’re going to win plenty of games, 48 or 49 needed to make the playoffs. After that, are we hoping for good matchups? Are we hoping to play teams who are bad at 5v5 again like the Caps?
Will we get bigger splashes of Rangers roster moves at the trade deadline? Is that when we see difficult decisions on Lindgren and Kaapo Kakko made? The chances at going that deep in the playoffs again aren’t guaranteed.
We all want the Rangers to win the Stanley Cup, and while we all can disagree on the path to make it happen, we all agree that’s the goal. But the minor Rangers roster moves made this offseason, without a big splash, really took some of the wind out of my sails. Of course we are still going to watch all the games and get excited as the playoffs come, but the fan vibes this preseason feel different. There’s less hope and more pessimism after an uneventful summer.
This is being billed as the last dance for this core. Bigger Rangers roster moves will come next summer whether we like it or not. Now is the time to make a difficult decision and move a high ceiling prospect or a fan favorite to go all in this season.
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